Neptune Insurance - NP Stock Price Target and Predictions

  • Consensus Rating: Hold
  • Consensus Price Target: $27.96
  • Forecasted Upside: 12.98%
  • Number of Analysts: 14
  • Breakdown:
  • 2 Sell Ratings
  • 5 Hold Ratings
  • 7 Buy Ratings
  • 0 Strong Buy Ratings
$24.75
▲ +1.01 (4.25%)

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Analyst Price Target for NP

Analyst Price Target is $27.96
▲ +12.98% Upside Potential
This price target is based on 14 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Neptune Insurance in the last 3 months. The average price target is $27.96, with a high forecast of $35.00 and a low forecast of $22.50. The average price target represents a 12.98% upside from the last price of $24.75.

This chart shows the closing price for NP for the last year in relation to the current analyst high, average, and low pricetarget.

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Current Consensus is Hold

The current consensus among 14 polled investment analysts is to hold stock in Neptune Insurance.

Past Monthly Recommendations

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  • 0 strong buy ratings
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  • 0 hold ratings
  • 0 sell ratings
6/12/2024
  • 0 strong buy ratings
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9/10/2024
  • 0 strong buy ratings
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12/9/2024
  • 0 strong buy ratings
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3/9/2025
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6/7/2025
  • 0 strong buy ratings
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9/5/2025
  • 0 strong buy ratings
  • 7 buy ratings
  • 5 hold ratings
  • 2 sell ratings
11/4/2025
  • 0 strong buy ratings
  • 7 buy ratings
  • 5 hold ratings
  • 2 sell ratings
12/4/2025

Latest Recommendations

  • 0 strong buy ratings
  • 7 buy ratings
  • 5 hold ratings
  • 2 sell ratings

Display Ratings By
DateBrokerageActionRatingPrice TargetDetails
11/17/2025Morgan StanleyBoost TargetEqual Weight ➝ Equal Weight$26.00 ➝ $27.00
11/13/2025MizuhoBoost TargetUnderperform ➝ Underperform$23.00 ➝ $26.00
11/13/2025Bank of AmericaBoost TargetUnderperform ➝ Underperform$21.00 ➝ $22.50
10/28/2025Zacks ResearchUpgradeHold
10/27/2025Deutsche Bank AktiengesellschaftInitiated CoverageBuy$29.00
10/27/2025Evercore ISIInitiated CoverageOutperform$35.00
10/27/2025Piper SandlerInitiated CoverageOverweight$33.00
10/27/2025CowenInitiated CoverageBuy
10/27/2025Raymond James FinancialInitiated CoverageOutperform$30.00
10/27/2025Morgan StanleyInitiated CoverageEqual Weight$26.00
10/27/2025National BanksharesSet Target$23.00
10/27/2025BMO Capital MarketsInitiated CoverageMarket Perform$25.00
10/27/2025Raymond James FinancialInitiated CoverageOutperform$30.00
10/27/2025Evercore ISIInitiated CoverageOutperform$35.00
10/27/2025BMO Capital MarketsInitiated CoverageMarket Perform$25.00
10/27/2025TD CowenInitiated CoverageBuy$32.00
10/27/2025The Goldman Sachs GroupInitiated CoverageBuy$30.00
10/27/2025Keefe, Bruyette & WoodsInitiated CoverageMarket Perform$26.00
10/27/2025MizuhoInitiated CoverageUnderperform$23.00
10/27/2025JPMorgan Chase & Co.Initiated CoverageNeutral$25.00
10/27/2025Bank of AmericaInitiated CoverageUnderperform$21.00
7/6/2021SidotiUpgradeNeutral ➝ Buy$64.00
12/15/2020SidotiDowngradeBuy ➝ Neutral$55.00
(Data available from 12/4/2020 forward)

News Sentiment Rating

0.67 (Buy)

Our news sentiment rating is based on the average sentiment of articles about this company published in the media in the last 30 days of headlines and can range from 2 (very positive sentiment) to -2 (very negative sentiment).

News Sentiment Over Time

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  • 0 very positive mentions
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5/8/2025
  • 0 very positive mentions
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6/7/2025
  • 0 very positive mentions
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  • 1 very negative mentions
7/7/2025
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8/6/2025
  • 0 very positive mentions
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9/5/2025
  • 2 very positive mentions
  • 5 positive mentions
  • 0 negative mentions
  • 0 very negative mentions
10/5/2025
  • 4 very positive mentions
  • 19 positive mentions
  • 1 negative mentions
  • 0 very negative mentions
11/4/2025
  • 7 very positive mentions
  • 12 positive mentions
  • 1 negative mentions
  • 0 very negative mentions
12/4/2025

Current Sentiment

  • 7 very positive mentions
  • 12 positive mentions
  • 1 negative mentions
  • 0 very negative mentions
Neptune Insurance logo
Our mission is to create a smarter, more resilient insurance platform powered by AI, data science, and technology, enabling insurers to deploy capacity with confidence and delivering instant access to coverage for policyholders and agents. Neptune is a leading, high-growth, highly profitable, data-driven managing general agent that is revolutionizing the way homeowners and businesses protect against the growing risks of flooding. We offer a range of easy-to-purchase residential and commercial insurance products — including primary flood insurance, excess flood insurance, and parametric earthquake insurance — distributed through a nationwide network of agencies. Neptune does not take any balance sheet insurance risk or have claims handling responsibility relating to the policies we sell. We underwrite and administer the issuance of insurance policies on behalf of a diverse panel of insurance and reinsurance companies, whom we refer to as capacity providers, that manage both this risk and the associated claims handling. From day one, we have built our business on a foundation of advanced data science and AI, leveraging proprietary ML algorithms, which has led to superior underwriting results, outsized growth, recurring revenue, and robust margins, including delivering a lifetime written loss ratio of just 24.7% to our capacity providers from our inception through June 30, 2025. In addition, for the year ended December 31, 2024, we achieved 40.6% organic revenue growth, 29.0% net income margin, and 60.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin and for the six months ended June 30, 2025, we achieved 32.3% organic revenue growth, 30.2% net income margin and 59.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin. Neptune was founded to solve the inefficiencies and poor product-market fit we saw in the traditional flood insurance market, which we believe represents a significant and underpenetrated opportunity. According to the American Housing Survey and the Energy Information Administration, there are over 100 million residential and commercial buildings in the U.S., many of which face flood risk, yet only a small fraction are covered by flood insurance. Today, the largest provider of flood insurance in the United States — and the holder of the majority market share — is the National Flood Insurance Program, a U.S. government-run entity and our main competitor. We believe purchasing insurance from the NFIP is relatively burdensome and time-consuming for policyholders and agents, and that its limited product offerings often fail to meet policyholder needs. In addition, the NFIP has historically received substantial government subsidies that have enabled it to limit premiums to rates that have been challenging for private flood insurance providers to compete with, a dynamic that is shifting with the NFIP’s recent introduction of its “Risk Rating 2.0” pricing model, discussed in more detail below. Private market participation has also historically been constrained by regulatory barriers, a lack of innovation expertise, and limited access to sufficient claims and performance data to optimize pricing and underwriting decisions. We believe that Neptune’s position as the first scaled private flood platform, including the years of claims and performance data that we have generated through our operations, provides a key early-mover advantage in addressing all of these challenges and disrupting the industry. With Neptune’s use of AI, our technology platform, and our data-driven approach, we believe we have delivered the promise of disrupting the insurance industry. Not only have our innovation efforts delivered vastly improved policyholder and agent experiences through the ease-of-use of our proprietary underwriting (Triton) and policy management (Poseidon) platforms, we have also demonstrated superior risk selection and underwriting through our top-tier financial performance and sustained growth. Utilizing AI and ML algorithms with no human underwriters, Neptune has redefined how flood insurance can be underwritten, creating value for policyholders and agents while producing consistent, long-term positive returns for our insurance and reinsurance partners. Further, as the NFIP moves away from its historical subsidized pricing model, we believe our Triton platform, backed by years of proprietary data derived from our business operations, positions us to optimize pricing determinations and compete for existing NFIP policyholders in a way that would be challenging for a new entrant to replicate until it is able to generate, or otherwise gain access to, comparable claims and performance data. Technology and data science are the foundation of Neptune’s business model, driving our three core pillars: • Our Underwriting Engine: Our entirely digital underwriting engine, Triton, uses advanced technology, including proprietary AI and ML models, without any human underwriters, to assess risk with speed and precision. Powered by predictive analytics and loss estimation, Triton has enabled Neptune’s policies to consistently outperform the NFIP in written loss ratio despite 21 landfall hurricanes — including four of the ten largest flood events in U.S. history — taking place since Neptune’s founding. • Our Risk Relationships: Our risk relationships are built on performance and trust, and we currently have 33 capacity providers, including 26 reinsurance providers, backing 7 distinct insurance programs to help minimize concentration risk while delivering consistent returns. In turn, the accuracy of our risk assessment and our precision pricing have delivered hundreds of millions of dollars of underwriting profit for our capacity providers since inception, leading to high rates of capacity renewals and increases in committed capacity. • Our Distribution: Our distribution strategy is primarily focused on deep partnerships across agencies with tens of thousands of agents who benefit from the ease-of-use of our automated underwriting platform, seamless API integrations, instantaneous bindable quotes and proprietary Agent Portal. We believe this is a meaningful departure from industry norms and makes our approach to distribution attractive to the agents we work with. The three pillars above interlock, creating a powerful and reinforcing loop. Unlike traditional insurance underwriting that historically relied on humans, static models, and infrequent adjustments, we leverage an iterative approach that allows us to consistently and rapidly integrate new data and models into our underwriting engine, thereby refining our processes and adapting to evolving market and environmental conditions. As our models constantly evolve and improve, they are able to deliver superior results that minimize losses for our capacity providers, which in turn grant us additional underwriting capacity. With more capacity available, we can offer coverages our policyholders want, enhancing the ability for our agency partners to easily sell policies while expanding our distribution and reach. The resulting increase in quoted and bound policies provides us with access to more data, enhancing the predictive capabilities of our underlying models. We operate as an MGA, with a highly attractive, recurring, fee-based revenue model derived from two primary sources: commissions paid by capacity providers, and fees paid by policyholders. Commissions are calculated as a negotiated percentage of premium for each policy. As of June 30, 2025, our average commission rates have increased by more than 4% since 2018, as capacity providers continue to recognize our superior underwriting performance. Given our high retention rates to date, we believe that we have a high degree of visibility into our future revenue streams. For example, for the six-month period ended June 30, 2025, our eligible policy and premium retention rates at renewal were 85.8% and 98.9%, respectively. As of December 31, 2018, the end of our first full year of operations, we had $4.4 million of premium in force with one insurance program. As of December 31, 2024, we have achieved remarkable growth. Since 2018, our premium in force has increased at a CAGR of 99% to $277.6 million as of December 31, 2024. For the year ended December 31, 2024, we generated $119.3 million in revenue, $34.6 million in net income, and $72.1 million in Adjusted EBITDA. This translates to $2.3 million in revenue per employee and $1.4 million in Adjusted EBITDA per employee, a 29.0% net income margin and a 60.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin. In addition, for the six months ended June 30, 2025, we generated $71.4 million in revenue, $21.6 million in net income, and $42.4 million in Adjusted EBITDA, which translates to a 30.2% net income margin and a 59.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin. For the twelve months ended June 30, 2025, we generated $136.7 million in revenue, $45.3 million in net income, and $82.4 million in Adjusted EBITDA, which translates to $2.5 million in revenue per employee and $1.5 million in Adjusted EBITDA per employee, a 33.1% net income margin and a 60.3% Adjusted EBITDA margin. Our Adjusted EBITDA margin has consistently exceeded 50% over the past four years, thanks to the operational leverage inherent in our technology-first business model. Notably, our organic revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased by $34.4 million, or 40.6%, year-over-year, primarily due to the increased number of renewals in our portfolio and an active 2024 hurricane season. For the year ended December 31, 2024, we also generated net cash provided by operating activities of $49.9 million. As of June 30, 2025, we had negative book value per share due to our history of paying dividends to our stockholders, which have been financed through a combination of debt and redeemable, convertible preferred stock financings and cash flows generated from our business operations. Since inception, we have made dividend payments to our stockholders totaling approximately $605 million. Our principal executive offices are located in St. Petersburg, Florida.
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Today's Range

Now: $24.75
Low: $23.76
High: $25.01

50 Day Range

MA: $26.05
Low: $22.86
High: $32.00

52 Week Range

Now: $24.75
Low: $22.00
High: $33.23

Volume

402,263 shs

Average Volume

408,313 shs

Market Capitalization

$3.42 billion

P/E Ratio

N/A

Dividend Yield

N/A

Beta

1.46

Frequently Asked Questions

What sell-side analysts currently cover shares of Neptune Insurance?

The following Wall Street analysts have issued stock ratings on Neptune Insurance in the last twelve months: Bank of America Corporation, BMO Capital Markets, Cowen Inc, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, Evercore ISI, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, National Bankshares, Inc., Piper Sandler, Raymond James Financial, Inc., TD Cowen, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Wall Street Zen, and Zacks Research.
View the latest analyst ratings for NP.

What is the current price target for Neptune Insurance?

0 Wall Street analysts have set twelve-month price targets for Neptune Insurance in the last year. Their average twelve-month price target is $27.96, suggesting a possible upside of 13.0%. Evercore ISI has the highest price target set, predicting NP will reach $35.00 in the next twelve months. Bank of America Corporation has the lowest price target set, forecasting a price of $22.50 for Neptune Insurance in the next year.
View the latest price targets for NP.

What is the current consensus analyst rating for Neptune Insurance?

Neptune Insurance currently has 2 sell ratings, 5 hold ratings and 7 buy ratings from Wall Street analysts. The stock has a consensus analyst rating of "Hold." A "hold" rating indicates that analysts believe investors should keep any existing positions they have in NP, but not buy more shares or sell existing shares.
View the latest ratings for NP.

What other companies compete with Neptune Insurance?

How do I contact Neptune Insurance's investor relations team?

Neptune Insurance's physical mailing address is 400 6TH ST S, ST. PETERSBURG, FL, 33701. The company's listed phone number is (727) 202-4815. The official website for Neptune Insurance is neptuneflood.com. Learn More about contacing Neptune Insurance investor relations.