With several companies now testing coronavirus vaccines, the news of anyone making it to Phase 3 testing is a cause to sit up and take notice. Now, one more possible candidate has crossed that line, as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) has entered Phase 3 testing for its own version, bringing us one step closer to a vaccine and the end of constant lockdown, re-lockdown, and associated calamity.
Warp Speed Ahead
Johnson & Johnson is the fourth company under the White House-backed “Operation Warp Speed” program designed to generate a vaccine candidate to take on coronavirus. The previous list includes AstraZeneca (LON:AZN), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Moderna (NYSE:MRNA), who have each had varying levels of success with their vaccines.
AstraZeneca, for example, recently had its own Phase 3 trials halted by an adverse reaction, which turned out to be a spinal cord injury in one of its testers. At last report, the trial is still on hold but no one's immediately sure why. AstraZeneca released its trial blueprints in a bid to help explain just what's going on, though how much impact that will ultimately have remains unclear.
Meanwhile, Moderna has conducted its studies, and expects to have an outcome by November. Given that it's already late September, that isn't as far away as it sounds. There was some suggestion that the company could have sufficient data in place by the end of October, but that was believed to be a bit too optimistic. There's a chance that may happen, but November is looking like much better odds.
Pfizer, meanwhile, seems to have the best chance of coming out on top in this run, as even President Trump offered remarks on the company's progress toward a coronavirus vaccine. Trump noted that Pfizer was “doing really well”, which suggested that Pfizer could be the first to reach the end and get the approval of the FDA.
In subsequent remarks, Trump noted that Johnson & Johnson would “...probably be a little later,” which given what we've seen so far, is about the shape of things in a really, really terse summary.
Maybe Not First, But Possibly Much Better
The reports further noted that Johnson & Johnson's trial results wouldn't be known for at least two months, which would put it out not too far behind Moderna's results. Yet if the drug is proven to work, it will have several distinct advantages over the rest of the market.
Johnson & Johnson's version can be delivered in one dose, which is one of its greatest advantages. Both Moderna and Pfizer require multiple doses, one dose delivered a month after the first dose. This means there's no need for patients to modify their schedules in order to get back at just the right time to get the second dose.
A further advantage of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is that it requires only basic refrigeration to be stored, available just about anywhere there's electricity or snow. Pfizer's vaccine, meanwhile, must be stored at -94 degrees Fahrenheit, temperatures that don't exist anywhere on Earth. By way of comparison, the South Pole has an average winter temperature of -76 degrees Fahrenheit, which would mean Pfizer's vaccine candidate would actually spoil in temperatures that kill humans in seconds.
Just to top it all off, Johnson & Johnson's Phase 3 test will be much larger than any other. Pfizer is poised to test with 44,000 people, while Moderna's tests featured 30,000. Johnson & Johnson is planning to bring in 60,000 people to take the test, which should go a long way to ensure accuracy.
First Mover Meets Better Product
There is no doubt that the first-mover advantage is a powerful one in any marketing setup. Being the first to market with a product that works can't be understated, and right now, Pfizer seems to have that edge. But by all reports, Johnson & Johnson seems to have a much better product ready to go, one that will be tested more, lasts under more normal conditions, and can be done in one dose. About the only way to beat a first-mover advantage is to have a much better product, and Johnson & Johnson looks to have just that.
Moreover, Johnson & Johnson also has a much more diversified product line. Even if the Johnson & Johnson vaccine doesn't cross the finish line, the company has a host of other medications and healthcare supports to fall back on. Its growing dividend doesn't hurt, either. Take together all of these factors and it becomes easy to see why the company is both up on the day and well worth considering as further investment.
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